The northern lights, or aurora borealis, have long captivated the imagination of those lucky enough to witness their stunning displays. This natural phenomenon occurs when charged particles from the sun collide with Earth’s atmosphere, producing a breathtaking spectacle of vibrant greens, purples, and pinks dancing across the night sky. But forecasting when and where these lights will appear can be tricky. Fortunately, various tools and resources have been developed to help enthusiasts plan their viewing experiences effectively.
In this blog post, you'll discover some of the most reliable apps and resources for predicting the northern lights, ensuring you seize every opportunity to experience this magical phenomenon. Let's jump into the essential tools that can enhance your aurora hunting adventures.
Understanding the Science Behind the Northern Lights
To appreciate how to predict the northern lights, understanding their formation is key. Auroras occur when solar particles from the sun travel through space and interact with Earth’s magnetic field. This interaction creates light as the particles collide with gases in the atmosphere, primarily oxygen and nitrogen. See blog post https://www.keweenawboattours.com/post/the-science-behind-the-northern-lights-solar-flares-and-cmes to review the science behind the northern lights.
Essential Factors for Predicting the Northern Lights
Before we explore specific apps and resources, it's essential to review the critical factors influencing northern lights visibility:
Solar Activity: As discussed in blog post "The Science Behind the Northern Lights - Solar Flares and CME's" the intensity of auroras ties directly to solar activity. For example, during the solar maximum, the chances of witnessing auroras increase by up to 80% compared to solar minimum periods.
KP Index: The KP index measures geomagnetic activity on a scale from 0 to 9. A Kp index of 5 or higher typically indicates that auroras can be seen at mid-latitudes (45 degrees north or south), opening up visibility for regions far from the poles. The following illustration provides a guideline for approximate KP index needed in order to see the aurora at given latitudes. KP is not the sole data point determining wheterh or not the aurora would be visible in your location. IMPORTANT - the KP index is a three hour global average and is Not assigned to specific locations.
Each colored lined indicates approximate KP to see the aurora at that latitude
Solar Wind Speed: The solar wind speed refers to the velocity at which charged particles, such as electrons and protons, are ejected from the sun's outer atmosphere (corona) into space. This continuous stream of particles carries energy and magnetic fields throughout the solar system and continuously interacts with earth's atmosphere. A sharp increase in solar wind speed is one indicator of an impending geomagnetic storm / aurora.
Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) is the magnetic field that extends from Earth into space and interacts with the solar wind, a stream of charged particles flowing from the Sun. This magnetic field plays a crucial role in shielding the Earth from harmful solar radiation and shaping the magnetosphere, the region of space surrounding Earth where the planet's magnetic field dominates over the solar wind's magnetic field.
BT -in simple terms this measures the total strength of the IMF. The higher the number the better. Above 10 is typically a good sign.
BZ - perhaps one of the most important data points to pay attention to, the BZ is the northward component of the IMF. We want this to be pointing "south" or have a "negative" number. There can be fairly good aurora displays with a KP 2 or 3 and the BZ at -10 or below along the US/Canada border.
Ovation Model - this model, provided by NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center, shows the current aurora "oval" and up to 30 minutes into the future. This model gives fairly accurate real-time data and is an excellent "on-scene" tool.
Ovation model example of a G4 (very strong/extreme) geomatic storm
Local Weather Conditions: Clear skies are vital for aurora viewing. Even during strong solar storms, clouds can obstruct your view entirely. Approximately 50% of aurora watchers miss out solely due to poor weather. So it is highly recommended to check the weather forecast at your viewing location prior to making long trips. Here are a few weather apps that are useful in predicting whether or not you could see the aurora.
Windy - this free app has options for radar, satellite, and various cloud cover options.
Atmospheric (perhaps the best)- free and designed for sky watchers this app has a plethora of features such as various cloud cover data, KP forecast, international space station tracking, etc...
NOTE - The northern lights cannot be seen through clouds, though through holes in the clouds. Sometimes a few clouds can add some "depth" to a northern lights photo.
Light Pollution: Urban areas with excessive artificial light can diminish visibility. Statistics show that the best viewing locations tend to be at least 30 miles from city lights, though light pollution can be picked up by camera 100 miles away! So the darker the area the better, with a clear view of the northern horizon. Higher points of land or lakes outside of town make for some good viewing locations. Here in the western U.P. the Keweenaw Dark Sky Park, just south of Copper Harbor, MI is a great place for viewing the night sky.
By keeping these factors in mind, you can use apps and resources more effectively to predict the northern lights.
Apps for Northern Lights Prediction
(Disclaimer - apps used to help predict the aurora should be used as a guideline only. The aurora is difficult to predict for even the most respected scientists. There are other apps available, however I chose just a few to highlight. It is recommended to use many resources/apps in combination to get a good accurate prediction)
One of the best ways to boost your chances of witnessing the northern lights is through mobile applications. Here’s a rundown of some popular apps:
1. My Aurora Forecast
My Aurora Forecast is a favorite among aurora hunters. This app offers real-time alerts and a detailed KP index forecast. Users can customize settings for notifications when auroras are likely based on their location.
Additionally, the app provides a map of current aurora activity, helping you track the best viewing spots. It is available for both Android and iOS users at no charge, with a premium version that includes extra features.
2.Aurora Forecast
Aurora Forecast is a mobile application that provides real-time information about the Northern Lights (Aurora Borealis) activity. Users can check the forecast to see the likelihood of witnessing the Aurora Borealis in their location. The app also offers notifications and alerts when the aurora activity is expected to be high, allowing users to plan their viewing experience accordingly. In my opinion the best feature of this app is the ovation model.
Space Weather Live (app and website)
The Space Weather Live app provides real-time information and updates on space weather conditions such as solar flares, geomagnetic storms, and auroras. Users can track the activity of the sun, receive alerts for significant space weather events, and stay informed about potential impacts on Earth's magnetic field and technology systems. This app is another good resource to use in the field to track data such as solar wind, IMF, BZ, and KP mentioned above.
Online Resources for Auroral Forecasting
While apps provide great functionality, several online resources also deliver up-to-date information about northern lights predictions. These resources should be your go-to for official northern lights information.
1. NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center ( Homepage | NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center)
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) offers a comprehensive resource for understanding space weather and its effects on auroras. Their Space Weather Prediction Center features forecasts for solar storms and Kp index data that aid in planning aurora viewing.
By monitoring NOAA updates, you’ll be well-prepared to know when it’s time to head outside for a potential aurora sighting. Messages like this "Severe Geomagnetic Storm Alert" means that very strong aurora is predicted and could be seen by most of the US with clear skies.
SpaceWeatherLive.com - as mentioned with the apps above provides real-time data on solar activity and auroras. Its user-friendly dashboard displays the current Kp index, solar wind speed, and other vital statistics clearly.
The site also features a community forum where aurora enthusiasts can share experiences and tips, adding a social element to your aurora hunting endeavors.
3. Social Media Groups
For those in Michigan, or states that border Michigan, the Michigan Aurora Chasers on Facebook and Instagram is an excellent group to join and follow. The group consists of not only "newbies" to aurora chasing but experts in aurora prediction and professional photographers that all help answer your questions. The group was founded by Melissa Kaelin, an author, aurora chaser, and PR and Communications Manager at the University of Michigan- Climate and Space. After only a few years the group has grown to over 127,000 members at the time I write this.
Northern Lights Alert is another Facebook group that has a bit more of a national feel. This group also provides forecasts, aurora and photography experts, and the everyday aurora chaser. This group has over 1.2 million members at the time of this blog post.
As mentioned above the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center and Space Weather Live are also great resources to follow on social media.
My Facebook and Instagram Keweenaw Boat Tours and Keweenaw Boat Tours IG are also recommended follows. I use usually summarize current conditions and forecast using many of the above resources. I'll let you know when/where to expect the aurora, and if I have openings for Northern Lights in the Keweenaw Tours and photograhy for beginners available for any upcoming northern lights.
Combining Resources for Better Predictions
While individual apps and websites are helpful, using them together can improve your predictions significantly. Here are some effective strategies:
Sync App Alerts with Websites: Set notifications in your app for solar activity peaks and cross-check this information against KP index readings on NOAA's site.
Track Weather Conditions: Use weather apps to assess local conditions and choose clear nights for potential aurora viewing.
Join Community Forums: Engage in discussions on forums and social media groups for northern lights enthusiasts. Sharing insights and predictions can enhance your chances of seeing the lights.
Tips for a Successful Aurora Viewing Experience
Having the right tools is essential, but following these extra steps can bolster your chances of witnessing the northern lights:
Choose Prime Locations: Visit areas known for strong aurora activity. Top spots include Northern Canada, Scandinavia, and specific regions in Alaska.
Stay Informed: Regularly check your apps and websites leading up to your viewing date. Solar activity can fluctuate, affecting visibility.
Be Patient and Prepared: Your aurora experience might require waiting. Dress warmly, bring snacks, and be comfortable for longer viewing periods.
Capture the Beauty: If you plan to photograph the auroras, ensure you use the right equipment. A quality camera with manual settings, a tripod, and remote shutter release will help you capture stunning shots.
Understand Your Location: Research your chosen viewing area in advance. Aim for remote locations to evade light pollution, and familiarize yourself with sightlines for potential aurora activity.
Embrace the Adventure of Aurora Hunting
Experiencing the magic of the northern lights is an incredible outdoor adventure. With the right tools—whether mobile apps or online resources—you are set to uncover the secrets of the auroras and enhance your chances of witnessing this celestial spectacle.
By understanding the visibility factors and utilizing the right applications and websites, you can navigate the night skies effectively. So gear up, stay connected, and prepare for an unforgettable journey chasing these otherworldly lights!
Proper planning and the right resources can significantly elevate your aurora hunting experience. Remember to embrace patience and enthusiasm, and let the northern lights illuminate your adventure. Happy hunting! And hope to see you in Michigan's Keweenaw Peninsula!
If you'd like to schedule a Northern Lights in the Keweenaw and Phtotography for beginners tour see my website and/or call (906) 281-1556
Up Coming blog post - Northern Lights Photography tips for beginners
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